Year: 2018
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Politics, interest rates and trade wars
The market correction that started in October has taken on a life of its own and volatility has continued on the back of new events, such as the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada and the leadership challenge to Theresa May in the UK.
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Invest for Brexit – whatever the outcome
After more than two years of talks, Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed a draft withdrawal agreement with the European Union (EU). The UK is on its way out of the EU.
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US mid-term: Democrat House, Republican Senate
Last night, Democrats' picked up enough seats to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, but Republicans have kept control of the Senate.
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Egypt’s President is creating enemies
The Egyptian courts are complicated. A month ago today, police unexpectedly arrested Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, the sons of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s deposed dictator.
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An end to the bull market?
There was a sea of red yesterday on Wall Street, with all major US equity market indexes closing down over 3%. Is the bull market resetting or ending?
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Turkey’s crisis could have huge repercussions
Turkey is not a significant player in the global economy but, if it reneges on its debt, there could be huge repercussions for the rest of us.
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No deal, no pension?
A ‘no-deal’ Brexit could result in tens of thousands of expat Britons being denied access to their pensions.
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Change brings opportunity in the Gulf
It is always fun being in Dubai - reminding me how much can be achieved, and quickly, when a country is committed to change. Something that is possible in the Gulf, but would be challenging in many other regions.
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Build-to-Rent investors are snapping up London flats
In the three months to June, as many as 40% of new-build houses sold in London went to “build-to-rent” investors, rather than individual buyers. This is more evidence, should you need it, that the housing market slowdown is continuing to hit the London market hard.
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Things are getting ugly in Turkey…
It’s really great to arrive in Turkey today for a break of almost three weeks, with my family. It is one of my favourite countries and I look forward to exploring new areas and, as a visitor, will benefit from the collapsing currency.
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Middle East becoming a new region in the investment landscape
Only a few years ago, the Middle East occupied practically a blank spot on the map of international investors. Due to the abundance of petrodollars, most governments and companies in the region were simply not in need of funding from foreign sources.
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Brexit is heating up
The Prime Minister seems to have broken the deadlock at home with the cabinet agreement on the direction of Brexit. It hasn't been cost free as two cabinet ministers, two further ministers and two Vice-Chairs have resigned from government.
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Merkel on the brink?
Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the Interior Minister, will meet today at 5pm Berlin time today. The meeting could determine whether the governing coalition will stay in place – or fall apart.
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UK house prices continue to slow, whilst London continues to fall
The consensus outlook for UK house price growth in 2018 and 2019 is about 2-3% per year. Growth has been slowing in recent years, and rose 4.
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US interest rates move higher
Yesterday, the Fed raised its target interest rate band, in line with market expectations, from 1.75% to 2%.
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Great news on Greece
I am looking forward to arriving in Greece today, with a feel of economic optimism that has been missing for years. There is great news on Greece, according to the Eurogroup of finance ministers.
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European shares slump over continuing political upheaval in Italy
After several weeks of severe pressure on Italian assets due to concerns over the fiscal sustainability of the M5S-Lega government program, the coalition's prime ministerial candidate, Giuseppe Conte, has resigned after the President, Sergio Mattarella, vetoed the proposed finance minister who is, supposedly, a euro-sceptic.
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An oil rich nation, with no oil
I had a fascinating day in Libya yesterday, witnessing the tragic collapse of this country, where the rule of law effectively disappeared six years ago, but has descended into chaos since 2014.
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Bread, Freedom, Dignity in Tunisia
Tunisia, often hailed as the sole success story of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, is in danger of being crippled by budget-cutting economic policies that threaten the country’s democratic experiment.
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Which global cities have the highest living costs?
UBS has just issued its annual report on the Worldwide Cost of Living which makes for some interesting reading.
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Agreement on path to Brexit
An agreement was reached this week on a transition deal for the UK and EU27 covering the initial 18 months after the UK exits the European Union in March 2019 - positive news for the UK economy, and particularly the Pound.
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What’s ailing the UK property market?
House price growth across the country has slowed to just 2.
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China’s return to dictatorship
It was a great experience visiting China last week, for the first time in a long time, and seeing the explosive growth, in cities like Shanghai. Since my list visit, it has clearly become a powerful, confident, yet fragile, dictatorship.
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Year of the Dog starts with a rollercoaster
Our Chinese clients have just welcomed in the ‘Year of the Dog,’ and are hoping for are hoping for a prosperous year ahead.
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Italy heads to the polls
Italy is having an election on 4 March. It’s likely to be messy.
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Technology is speeding up growth in Africa
In the 2000s, Africa grew by more than 5% a year and the financial media was full of stories about its potential.
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Oil bulls are about to be disappointed
Dubai does not have the enormous oil wealth enjoyed by its neighbours such as Abu Dhabi. Its main source of wealth has historically been as a port.
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Market volatility surging
After 19 months without so much as a 5% correction, the S&P 500 fell by another 4.1% yesterday, bringing its six-day cumulative decline to almost 8%.
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China braced for a slowdown
Investors may be caught out by a slowdown in China, although it us unlikely to be too dramatic.
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UK growth better than expected in 2017
The UK economy outperformed consensus last year, with growth looking set to finish at around 1.5%.
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Iran’s uprising gathers pace
The anti-government protests that erupted in Iran between Christmas and New Year started as a narrow demonstration over the rising price of eggs. They rapidly spiralled into the most serious challenge to Iran’s clerical regime since 2009.
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UK House prices to remain subdued in 2018
UK house prices are likely to have grown around 4% in 2017. London has been a different entity.
