Year: 2015
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Burma’s time in the sun
Exploring Burma with my family is proving an exhilarating experience – although my sons’ weren’t impressed with my suggestion for Christmas Eve breakfast (see photograph).
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Think twice before investing in UK property
Yesterday’s Autumn Statement from the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer has been well accepted. However, one group of investors who have been particularly badly hit recently, got hit even harder.
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Thailand’s Government gets pro-active
It is great to be back in Bangkok, visiting clients and local entrepreneurs.
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Pressures in Europe re-emerge
Public services shut down across Greece yesterday in the first general strike since the left-wing government won the election. The strike, a protest at austerity measures imposed as part of the country’s bailout, shut schools, transport and museums, whilst hospitals used emergency staff.
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Clouds gather over Turkey
Some emerging markets are back in favour, with the consensus being that their earnings will grow around 9% over the next year. However, one market that remains out of fashion is Turkey.
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Property Bubbles emerging
Our strategic partner, UBS, today issued a report on global house prices. It underlines the fact that when inexpensive financing is combined with a positive long-term economic outlook, property prices eventually uncouple from the real economy.
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UK visa scheme under the spotlight
The Times recently reported that hundreds of millions of pounds of dirty money has been laundered through Britain because the “golden visa” system for wealthy foreign investors.
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Asia’s fortunes rising
Asian markets have had a terrible year. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index has fallen by more than 20% from April’s peak, taking it to a three-year low.
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Japan : Bouncing back
Japanese stocks had a terrible summer, sliding by around 10% amid global jitters over China. But it isn’t just the state of Japan’s giant neighbour that has investors unnerved.
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China falls again
Following a few weeks respite, concerns over flagging Chinese growth came back to haunt global markets today.
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Growth forecast in UK property
As volatility continues in currency, commodity and equity markets, investors are increasingly looking at alternative asset classes.We have experienced a higher level of interest in property and, in particular, the UK housing market is back under the spotlight.
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A Greek adventure
It is the first time I have ever taken a sailing holiday and it is a great experience, spending time on the south Turkish coast, with occasional visits to nearby Greek islands. Although I am learning that keeping my three sons in such a confined space for long periods of time was never going to make for a relaxing trip!
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Africa’s emerging middle class
The media coverage surrounding President Obama’s visit to Africa challenged many people’s preconceptions of the continent. It is one of the most exciting regions in the world today, with rapid economic growth and an increasing population.
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London property prices on the slide?
There are a lot of contradictory reports on what has happened to London property prices recently.
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China’s Fall
The Shanghai Composite Index is actually up today – not a frequent occurrence recently. On Monday, it fell by more than 8% - the largest fall since February 2007.
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Oil prices remain low
Recent market jitters over Greece brought oil prices to below $60 a barrel for the first time since April. Even if market sentiment improves, oil prices are unlikely to rise from here.
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Eid Mubarak
As countries across the Middle East slide into deeper chaos, Morocco seems to be weathering the Arab uprisings, neither imploding nor imposing harsh repression.
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The Russian recovery
With the focus on Greece, few investors have noticed that Russian stocks have recovered well this year, with the Micex index up around 30%.
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Return of the PIGS
I am currently visiting clients in Lisbon, Portugal. Whilst the weekend’s events in Greece has sent shock waves throughout global financial markets, the PIGS have been by far the worst affected.
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Brazil : under new management
Not long ago Brazil was a favourite with foreign investors, but now things look bleak. The Financial Times recently reported that Brazil is facing its worst recession for 25 years.
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Greece: a good investment for the brave?
As the Greek crisis trundled along, with all sides desperate to keep Greece in the Eurozone, all sides have made significant sacrifices.
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Still no deal in Greece
Greece is hoping to secure a deal with its creditors to unlock €7bn of rescue package funds by the end of May. But there were few signs of progress this week.
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How can a country boost its GDP by 25%?
I am back in Malta for the third time in a year, visiting local entrepreneurs and providing financial planning advice.
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A tough year for Russia
Russia’s annual budget has passed through Parliament and it is clear that the Government is finally facing up to its mounting fiscal problems.
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Italy’s brighter future
While Greece’s boom and bust crisis is ‘acute’, Italy’s could be described as simply ‘chronic.
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Chinese equities : Crash looming?
Stock markets don’t always reflect fundamentals. China, for instance.
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The latest on Greece
The Greek authorities scraped enough money together to meet a payment due on 9th April 2015 to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They say they can also cover a similar bill next month when a six-month bond expires.
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Japan’s bull market to continue
Japanese stocks have had a superb start to the year. The Nikkei jumped to a 15 year high.
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Time to buy broken Brazil?
t wasn’t long ago that Brazil was tipped as one of the world’s most promising markets. Now… things are going from bad to worse.
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Crucial countdown to Nigeria’s election
Elections in Nigeria take place on 28th March, having been originally planned for early February. They take place against a backdrop of financial turmoil caused by the collapse in the oil price, in a country that gets 75% of its income from oil taxes.
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Bangladesh’s broken politics
It is nine months since I last visited Bangladesh (see ‘news’ May 2014) and commented on its status as a South Asian success story, delivering growth of 5-6% annually for over 20 years. How quickly sentiment can change, and the risks in ‘emerging’ markets come to the fore.
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China : Trapped between strong yuan and high debt
Last year, China’s growth rate slipped to a 24 year low of 7.4% - and it’s heading lower still.
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Morocco’s growth prospects
In recent years, as investors looked to diversify from the main emerging markets, MENA (Middle East North Africa) funds came into vogue. Political unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria meant that North African markets have had a torrid time, whilst Middle East markets have been spooked by the collapse in oil prices.
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Passports for sale
It is good to be visiting clients in Lisbon, Portugal. They have spent several years concerned at the faltering economy but there is now a clear mood of optimism returning.
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The Greek dilemna
I have been a regular visitor to Athens for many years, but have never seen congestion like that on this visit. Whichever direction I want to travel involves seemingly hours stuck in traffic jams.
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Fast growth does not equal strong stock market performance
2014 was a difficult year for emerging markets, falling over 4% (in US Dollar terms).
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The Polish power house
What is the most successful European economy in the last decade? Poland.
