Our Opinion: 2017
Greece’s debt saga grinds on
My mother-in-law’s holiday in Greece was cancelled at the last minute today as a General Strike took place today and many inbound flights cancelled. Industrial action began on Tuesday but has now been ramped up nationally by members of the big trade unions.
MPs are set to vote on controversial reforms tomorrow that will cut pensions and end tax breaks.
The left-wing Syriza government needs to make further savings before eurozone finance ministers agree to hand over further loan cash as part of its latest bailout deal.
The Eurogrop of finance ministers recently reported ‘great news’ on Greece. “All the big issues” of a reform package under discussion with the Greek government had been settled. The tax and pension reforms, which Athens must now pass into law, are designed to improve Greece’s primary budget surplus (the overshoot without taking debt service costs into account) of 2% of GDP. The deal unlocks the latest payment from the latest bailout programme (the third since 2010, just in case you’ve lost count), which will avoid a default on payment worth more than €7bn in July.
If you think this rings a vague bell, you’re right. There have been plenty of news flashes like this since the start of the Greek debt crisis, and none of them heralded a definitive end to the affair. This latest chapter in the saga won’t end the cycle of match, mend and pretend either.
It should buy Greece time until 2018, but it’s a fudge that won’t resolve the matter.
After nearly a decade of “punishing austerity”, which has seen the economy shrink by a quarter and unemployment stagnate at 25%, the country remains stuck in a vicious circle. GDP growth has been hovering around 0% for the past two years and fell into the red again in the fourth quarter. Since the bailout began, austerity and structural reforms have failed to stem the decline enough to prevent the overall debt burden from rising ever higher. Greece owes a totally unsustainable 180% of GDP. Without significant debt relief, the country won’t ever be able to grow fast enough to work off its debt.
The International Monetary Fund has come to this conclusion, but the other main creditor, the EU, still seems to think that with enough effort it should ultimately be able to pay its creditors.
The EU is working on the basis that Greece’s primary surplus will rise to
3.5% in 2018 and stay there for ten years. No country has ever managed this, and it’s hard to see why Greece, of all states, should suddenly miraculously set a precedent – especially when the government’s “legitimacy is fragile and [the] economy still in tatters”, according to Matthew Klein in the Financial Times.
Debt relief could involve a straightforward reduction in the amount of debt Greece owes, but a more politically palatable option for European electorates may be an extension in loan maturities or reduction in interest rates miles into the future. Until we start hearing discussions along these lines, however, we can expect the Greek debt saga to grind on and on.
17th May 2017